Thursday, November 7, 2013

A software to predict burglaries


Scientists claim to have developed a new cutting-edge computer software that predicts where burglaries are most likely to occur. The model anticipates crime patterns, especially the hot spots of crime, which can allow law enforcement agencies to engage in targeted prevention activities that could disrupt the cause of crime before it happens, researchers said.

Using the model, the Indio police department, California US has developed interventions to address the problem, and can better anticipate hot spots of criminal activity and deploy officers accordingly. The result saw an 8% decline in thefts in the first nine months of 2013, said researchers.

Parker began working with the Indio police department in 2010 to determine if a computer model could predict by census block group — the smallest geographic unit the Census Bureau uses — where burglaries were most likely to occur.

"Thefts overall had been rising, and I was concerned that we were on a course to exceed last year," said Indio police chief Richard P Twiss. Using crime data and truancy records — truants account for a significant number of daytime burglaries — Parker discovered patterns of crime over time and space.

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